Something actually bothers me about the trading action in the stock market up until now this year. While there is positive anticipation concerning corporate earnings, the stock exchange seems to be selling on positive, non-corporate news and this is worrisome. Investor sentiment has actually enhanced from the 4th quarter last year, but it’s still not strong enough to cultivate any sustainable upward rate trend at this time. Business are anticipating good corporate earnings, however the marketplace simply isn’t really interested. ‘Fragile’ is the word that I think best describes the state of the stock exchange right now.
In 2012, corporate earnings were great, especially thinking about the very little GDP development experienced in the U.S. economy. The marketplace was more concentrated on the unpredictability created by Europe’s sovereign debt troubles. A weak investor sentiment took over the reality of good corporate earnings and boosting balance sheets. This is why I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the stock exchange did similarly to last year-a suitable start, followed by consolidation, and afterwards correction. Corporate earnings will be strong in 2012, however nobody wants to get them.
Were you aware of that?
I’ve been a student of the equity market my whole grown-up life and I can tell you that I’m not extremely passionate about the customers in the stock market over the next few years. Corporate earnings must remain to hold up well, but the marketplace simply isn’t interested. There are a lot of underlying problems (mostly associated with financial obligation) in the worldwide economy and I believe it’s fair to conclude that investors should not anticipate anything from the broader securities market over the medium term.
Don’t get me wrong; I’m not stating that there aren’t good trades out there (I simply uncovered a clinical gadget company whose business is thriving), only that investors need to not anticipate the broader market to provide any tailwind for their holdings. There are always good trades in the stock market, even in a bearishness, but I wouldn’t be a buyer of an index fund.
A lot of change has taken place over the last 15 years. I’ll never forget the amazing trading action in the stock exchange from 1995 to 2000 during the innovation bubble. That was a once-in-a-generation kind of market. Then the realty market ended up being the next possession training to thrive into a bubble and now we’re probably mid-way through a flourishing product rate cycle. I remind myself that there aren’t numerous asset classes left when I believe about what’s next.
Each of these booms eventually reached the degree of a speculative market bubble, a level identified by Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University as a kind of ‘irrational spirit.” The words were coined by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in December 1996, three years before the actual market bubble lastly peaked.
I do feel that corporate earnings will remain to be strong, however the broader stock exchange isn’t the place to be. Additional economic recessions are most likely in the not-too-distant future and, as monetary markets proper, a higher weighting in the direction of commodities need to pay off much better.